MAT274 Week 5 | Probability in Mathematics - Grand canyon university

1. Suppose next that we have even less knowledge of our patient, and we are only given the accuracy of the blood test and prevalence of the disease in our population. We are told that the blood test is 9X percent reliable, gestational diabetes affects X+1 percent of the population in our patient’s age group, and that our test has a false positive rate of X+4 percent. Compute the following quantities based on this new information:

If 100,000 people take the blood test, how many people that test positive will actually have gestational diabetes? What is the probability of having the disease given that you test positive? If 100,000 people take the blood test, how many people that test negative despite actually having gestational diabetes? What is the probability of having the disease given that you tested negative? Comment on what you observe in the above computations. How does the prevalence of the disease affect whether the test can be trusted?